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Clearly, Not Everyone Is Getting Rich Off The Stock Market

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Well, the NY Fed was out today with its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q4 2017. Clearly, Americans are in a lot of debt. Take a look. Just a couple of quick hits from the report. Total U.S. household debt rose $193 billion in the 4th quarter, to a new all-time peak of $13.15 trillion. That's 17.9% above the most recent trough in Q2 2013. Broken down by segment, what do you suppose was the largest gain in percentage terms? Credit cards, with a 3.2% increase. In the picture above, the widening gap represented by the red arrows reflects the fact that non-housing debt is rising at a faster pace than housing debt. Here's what's troubling about that. Below is a picture of the stock market, as represented by the S&P 500 index, over that same period; from the most recent credit trough in Q2 2013 to the end of 2017. And thus, the title of this article. Over that period, the S&P 500 index rose by 75%; from roughly 1,600 to 2,800. Apparently, ho

Portfolio Rebalancing: 2 Approaches And A Practical Example

I recently wrote an article on the topic of portfolio rebalancing that was selected as an Editors' Pick On Seeking Alpha.

Here is an excerpt from the article:
. . . Much like the landscape around your home, your asset allocation needs regular maintenance. When you landscaped your home (or started a garden, as the case may be), you likely worked with design and installation professionals to pick exactly the right plants for each location depending on your climate zone, the correct sun/shade mix and similar factors. No doubt, it all looked absolutely spectacular upon completion. However, left untended, your landscape or garden will not look nearly as good even weeks later, not to mention a year or more. In fact, it might ultimately look so bad that it would be hard for an impartial observer to discern that there had ever been a design or plan.
People with a scientific mind call this entropy, one definition of which is "a gradual decline into disorder." Your asset allocation, left untended, is also subject to entropy. 
Another way to phrase this is "portfolio drift." Fundamentally, this is not a bad thing. Likely, you purposely designed your portfolio such that it was diversified, which typically means it contains asset classes with low correlation; where one may outperform at the same time another underperforms. Over time, however, this behavior can result in your asset classes drifting far from their initial weighting. In turn, this has the potential to raise the risk level of your portfolio far beyond what you ever intended.
If you find that excerpt intriguing, here is a link to the rest of the article.

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