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Clearly, Not Everyone Is Getting Rich Off The Stock Market

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Well, the NY Fed was out today with its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q4 2017. Clearly, Americans are in a lot of debt. Take a look. Just a couple of quick hits from the report. Total U.S. household debt rose $193 billion in the 4th quarter, to a new all-time peak of $13.15 trillion. That's 17.9% above the most recent trough in Q2 2013. Broken down by segment, what do you suppose was the largest gain in percentage terms? Credit cards, with a 3.2% increase. In the picture above, the widening gap represented by the red arrows reflects the fact that non-housing debt is rising at a faster pace than housing debt. Here's what's troubling about that. Below is a picture of the stock market, as represented by the S&P 500 index, over that same period; from the most recent credit trough in Q2 2013 to the end of 2017. And thus, the title of this article. Over that period, the S&P 500 index rose by 75%; from roughly 1,600 to 2,800. Apparently, ho...

ADDENDUM: The ETF Monkey 2016 Model Portfolio Q3 Update

On October 5, I published the Q3 update for The ETF Monkey 2016 Model Portfolio on Seeking Alpha.

In that article I noted that, of the 3 implementations I set up, the Charles Schwab implementation was the winner through Q3.

This morning, in the process of doing research for another article I hope to write on the value of dividends in your ETF-based portfolio, I happened to note that the Charles Schwab implementation had brought in substantially less dividends through Q3 than either the Vanguard or Fidelity implementations. When I dug in to understand the reasons why, I quickly discovered that the following three Schwab ETFs pay dividends annually as opposed to quarterly:
  • Schwab International Equity ETF (SCHF)
  • Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE)
  • Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF (SCHP)
While, in theory, this does not imply additional outperformance by the Schwab implementation of the portfolio (since the share price should be reduced by the value of the dividends), it does mean that this implementation will generate a healthy dose of cash in Q4.

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