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Clearly, Not Everyone Is Getting Rich Off The Stock Market

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Well, the NY Fed was out today with its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q4 2017. Clearly, Americans are in a lot of debt. Take a look. Just a couple of quick hits from the report. Total U.S. household debt rose $193 billion in the 4th quarter, to a new all-time peak of $13.15 trillion. That's 17.9% above the most recent trough in Q2 2013. Broken down by segment, what do you suppose was the largest gain in percentage terms? Credit cards, with a 3.2% increase. In the picture above, the widening gap represented by the red arrows reflects the fact that non-housing debt is rising at a faster pace than housing debt. Here's what's troubling about that. Below is a picture of the stock market, as represented by the S&P 500 index, over that same period; from the most recent credit trough in Q2 2013 to the end of 2017. And thus, the title of this article. Over that period, the S&P 500 index rose by 75%; from roughly 1,600 to 2,800. Apparently, ho...

Thoughts On Portfolio Rebalancing and "Currency"

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Back in November, 2015, I wrote a fairly comprehensive article for Seeking Alpha on the subject of portfolio rebalancing. I was honored with the piece being selected as an Editor's Pick.

In this brief piece, I want to touch on a somewhat related question. What is "currency"?

In general, when someone says "currency," likely the first thing that comes to mind is "cash." After all, cash is the legal tender of the country in which we live. With cash, we can buy assets.

However, don't forget the perspective that the assets in our portfolio are also a form of currency. To see what I mean, take a quick look at the two screenshots I share below. The first picture features my personal asset allocation as of December 31, 2015.

ETF Monkey Portfolio - As of December 31, 2015

This second picture features my allocation as of February 5, 2016.

ETF Monkey Portfolio - As of February 5, 2016
Take a look at the rows highlighted in green and red. The securities shaded in green represent assets that have outperformed during this period, and those in red those that have underperformed. While I have executed a few trades during this period, I have not traded any of the featured securities, so the movement you see is genuine.

Take a look at BSV and TIP. On December 31, 2015, these had weights of 8.93% and 4.88%, respectively. As of February 5, 2016, these had grown to 9.27% and 5.10%. If you do the math, that is almost a 5% increase in weighting.

Next, repeat the same exercise with T, VZ, and WMT. Each of these has gained at least 10% in weighting between the periods. Both of these examples reflect the fact that, during the severe YTD market declines, these assets have apparently been viewed as safe havens and have held up extremely well.

In contrast, take a look at VTI and VWO, the securities highlighted in red. Their weightings have fallen from 6.00% and 3.34%, respectively, to 5.62% and 3.18%. Both represent weighting declines in the range of 5-7%. In contrast to the first set of assets, not only have these assets declined equally with the overall market, they have actually done worse!

By now, you likely see where I am going with this. I might like to add to my positions in VTI and VWO, to increase their relative weights in my portfolio to what they were on December 31, 2015. Certainly, I could do so using my cash reserves. But what if, due to current market uncertainty, I want to hang on to my cash? Another choice that I have is to sell some of the "green" assets to buy some of the "red" assets. Yes, the "green" assets represent another form of currency that is at my disposal.

At the end of the day, that is the essence of rebalancing. Using the "currency" of your appreciated assets to purchase those that have underperformed.





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